Archive for the ‘Miami Beach’ Category

Prediction– The Pledge Will Hold
January 16, 2008

The Democratic contenders have stayed out of Florida, under their pledge to punish Florida’s against-the-rules re-scheduling of its primary (FL, essentially, performed what we called “cutsies” back in grade school, cutting in the primary line before Super Tuesday, Feb 5th).
Now, the Obama campaign is muttering by leaked memo that Hillary’s people may be about to go back on the pledge. I would bet dollars to doughnuts that won’t happen.
Here’s why– the race here doesn’t seem to be close. The Quinnipiac poll this week had Clinton 20-points up on Obama. She doesn’t need to come here to win.
He doesn’t need to break the pledge and come here either, because a loss in FL can be dismissed by the Obama people as– “Hey, we didn’t compete in Florida– no biggie.” Look how little buzz Hillary got for winning Michigan last night– her serious opponents weren’t even on the ballot there.
But where it is close– really close– is Nevada, which holds its caucuses soon. And South Carolina, which votes on the 26th (three days before FL does) is also not a runaway– polls there show a substantial but not insurmountable lead for Obama there.
And in NV & SC, voters take that pledge thing seriously. When Obama said hello to some reporters who’d gathered outside a FL fundraiser a few months back, a Las Vegas paper did a serious piece questioning whether he’d broken the pledge. Those early states want to keep their place in line, and want to see FL punished for “cutsies”.
So– put yourself in Hillary’s place. Will you risk losing a couple of points in the next couple of states– where things are close and crucial– to come here and try to pad your 20-point lead? Winning in NV will help her more in Florida, in terms of momentum and excitement, than holding a couple of events on Miami Beach.
True– the Clinton campaign looked into holding a low-$, big crowd fundraiser at the Miami Beach Convention Ctr. just before our primary. That was apparently the source of the Obama campaign’s concerns.
But even such a fundraiser– technically legal under the Pledge– would not play well in all-important NV & SC. So Hillary will do a pair of under-the-radar, no-press-allowed events on Miami Beach this weekend… tucking away another $750,000 but not actually meeting anyone Floridians for free, or singing to anyone but the choir.


Miami Beach Mayoral Runoff– An Off-Air P.S.
November 13, 2007

Did a TV piece on the mayoral runoff today– about a newly-released list of lobbyists who donated thousands to the benignly-named “Citizens Coalition, Inc.”, a group that paid for lots of ads and fliers attacking candidate Simon Cruz. The lobbyist involved are some of South Florida’s best-known– uber-lobbyistRon Book, former state lawmakers Miguel de Grandy and Manny Preiguez, and Dusty Melton.

Cruz claims that their contributions highlight hypocrisy in the campaign of his opponent, fellow City Commissioner Matti Bower… that her claims that he’s a captive of “special interests” are gutted by this revelation.

Bower still claims she knew nothing about the group or its donors. Book, the only lobbyist of three we called who’d say anything substantial, claims he was approached by someone other than Bower, and that he gave without any agenda in mind.

Cruz himself says he doesn’t have any theory about what the lobbyists’ agenda might be. None of them are registered to lobby the Beach commission. A Cruz supporter, St. Rep. Luis Garcia, suggests Miami-Dade county might be behind the “Citizens Coalition, Inc.” effort, because the county is interested in taking over fire service in Miami Beach. Garcia, who used to be the Beach Fire Chief, pointed out that County Commission chair Bruno Barreiro’s backing Bower.

Firefighters and police unions have endorsed Cruz, and when a debate this morning focussed on budget matters, it wasn’t hard to see why.

Cruz said budget cuts should focus on the city’s executive structure, because “that’s where the salaries are. You need your workers to be out on the street.”

Bower, in contrast, said tough budget times ahead might demand re-opening issues of pay for cops and perhaps firefighters. “Unions are special interests”, Bower said at one point in debate. She told me afterward that the average police salary on the Beach is now $108,000.

But if Bower’s incurring the wrath of police and fire unions, her cause is drawing good money from another arm of labor. The biggest donor to “Citizens Coalition, Inc.” is another vaguely-named group, the “Community Strength Coalition”. Cruz said– and Bower didn’t challenge him– that that was an arm of the Serive Employees International Union. He said the SEIU’s trying to unionize condo workers up and down the Beach, which will lead to higher condo fees for residents.

Bower responded that those workers needed a union– that some condos pay ridiculously low wages.

She’d appear to be in pretty good shape, going into next Tuesday’s runoff. She led last Tuesday’s vote 47%-44& over Cruz, despite his huge fund-raising advantage (Cruz did get LOTS of contributions from developers and their reps, though he points out that those hard-money gifts were in the public record well before election day, unlike the soft money funneled through “Citizens Coalition”).

That money imbalance will even out, in the runoff. Bower says a lot of folks who dismissed her mayoral bid as hopeless are now coming to her with checks in hand. Nothing draws cash like a win at the polls.

Just a taste of some topics I couldn’t fit into a 2-minute TV piece.