A Near-Perfect Presidential Prognostication

   Seriously– 11 months ago, who did you think would be President?  Rich Bard had Obama over McCain, back in December ’07.

   Remember, that was when Obama was one of nine Democrats in the running. He had the gift of oration and the backing of hordes of young volunteers, but most forecasters saw him as this year’s Howard Dean, not JFK.

   And John McCain was recovering from his campaign’s fall flameout.  Giuliani and Romney and even Huckabee and Thompson looked at least as strong as McCain, as Christmas approached.

   That was when my friend Frank Davies, a former Miami Herald reporter now covering Washington for the San Jose Mercury-News, renewed the quadrennial tradition he established back in 1976.  He e-mailed his politico-wonk friends around the country, asking for predictions– Who’d be the Presidential nominees? The VP picks?  Who’d win, and by what margin?  How would the House and Senate look after the voting stopped?

   53 people registered their guesses.  Only Rich Bard chose Obama over McCain.  Only ten people picked Obama.  Only one other person predicted an Obama-vs.-McCain contest, but she had McCain the winner.

   “A lot of luck involved, obviously” says Rich Bard now, but he’s hardly a monkey with a dart board.  Bard edits the Herald’s political web site, and holds Bachelors and Masters degrees in Political Science.

   He thought Hillary Clinton’s past baggage would weigh her down, and figured McCain’s ability to attract independent & Democratic votes would appeal to Republican voters. 

   Bard even got the Biden VP pick right, figuring Obama would want to shore up his sparse resume on foreign affairs.  But Sarah Palin wasn’t on his radar– he had another Governor whose name began with “Pa-“– Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty– as the GOP VP candidate. 

    So– I salute the Bard, and offer a humbling postscript.  My own forecast in the Frank Davies Forecasting Contest… Mitt Romney defeating Hillary Clinton (at least I had Joe Biden as her VP choice).


There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: