Miami-Dade Mega-Exit Poll

  Miami polling firm Bendixen & Associates did a huge exit poll during the first 9 days of early voting in Miami-Dade– almost 87-hundred interviews at 18 of the 20 early voting sites.  The demographics of those interviewed– 55% hispanic, 25% Anglos, 20% black– sound roughly like the county’s electorate.

  Bottom-line result– Obama 61%, McCain 39%. 

   It should be noted that Sergio Bendixen’s firm has done work for the Obama campaign (though this poll was done for a Political Science class at UM, taught by Bendixen’s friend and former State Rep Mike Abrams).  Remember also that the Obamites have put major effort into early-vote turnout, while Republicans have largely concentrated on absentee ballots. 

   Still, 61% is impressive.  John Kerry took Miami-Dade with only 52% of the vote four years ago.

  Among sub-groups of the electorate:

  McCain prevailed with hispanic voters, 53-47%.  Cuban-Americans born in Cuba overwhelmingly favored the Republican, 69-31%.  But younger hispanics– those born in the USA– broke 72-28% for Obama.  And voters born in Latin American countries favored Obama, 70-30% (those from Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico and Honduras favored Obama by substantial margins, while voters born in Venezuela and Nicaragua went big for McCain)

   Age was another major factor- McCain doing well with voters 65-74 (64% backed the 72-year-old Republican) and those 75 and older (74% for McCain).

   But Obama led in the younger age groups:

   18-29 year-olds– 72-28%////30-49 year-olds–60-40%////50-64 year-olds–56-44%

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