“We’re Getting Killed Out There”

   The headline– word for word- was the reaction of one long-time Republican Party official who called after seeing our story on voter registration stats on Monday.  The GOP’s getting swamped in South Florida signups this year. 

   Here are the stats we didn’t have time to put on TV–

BROWARD

Democrats

Jan 1   451,855

July 31   493,947

Change  +42,092

Republicans

Jan 1  228,968

July 31  237,085

Change  +8117

“Other” 

Jan 1  174,444

July 31  219,052

Change  +44,608

BOTTOM LINE– Democratic registration is up 5 times as much as Republican.  “Others”– minor parties and “independent” voters are gaining most of all.

MIAMI-DADE

Democrats

Jan 1   459,370

July    510,037

Change  +50,667

REPUBLICANS

Jan 1    360,458

July      367,878

Change  +7420

No Party Affiliation

Jan 1    217,498

July   226,512

Change  +9014

BOTTOM LINE– Democratic registration is up 7 times as much as Republican.  Far fewer new “independent” signups than Broward is seeing.

  

 My Republican friend– a fixture in Miami-Dade party activity– was stunned by the figures.  She knew times were bad for the Republican “brand”, but not this bad.

   She says the “527’s”– groups like “People for the American Way” and “Mi Familia Vota” are a huge factor, and even hints darkly that they may not be turning in applications from people who want to register Republican, though she has no proof.

   Democrats say, of course, that these registration figures are proof of change in the air– that Republicans will pay the price for Florida’s and the country’s hard times under GW Bush.  The Congressional campaigns of Joe Garcia (facing Mario Diaz-Balart) and Raul Martinez (Lincoln Diaz-Balart) trumpet each registration “book closing” as fresh evidence that their Districts are growing ever-bluer.

   But Florida never votes its registration numbers– Democrats still have a 42-37% registration edge, but Republicans have had the edge when it counts, statewide– the Governor & Cabinet & US Senate races.

  And, of course, the presidential races of 2000 & 2004.  The Quinnipiac poll released this morning has Obama two points ahead of McCain– within the poll’s margin of error.

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