Prediction– The Pledge Will Hold

The Democratic contenders have stayed out of Florida, under their pledge to punish Florida’s against-the-rules re-scheduling of its primary (FL, essentially, performed what we called “cutsies” back in grade school, cutting in the primary line before Super Tuesday, Feb 5th).
Now, the Obama campaign is muttering by leaked memo that Hillary’s people may be about to go back on the pledge. I would bet dollars to doughnuts that won’t happen.
Here’s why– the race here doesn’t seem to be close. The Quinnipiac poll this week had Clinton 20-points up on Obama. She doesn’t need to come here to win.
He doesn’t need to break the pledge and come here either, because a loss in FL can be dismissed by the Obama people as– “Hey, we didn’t compete in Florida– no biggie.” Look how little buzz Hillary got for winning Michigan last night– her serious opponents weren’t even on the ballot there.
But where it is close– really close– is Nevada, which holds its caucuses soon. And South Carolina, which votes on the 26th (three days before FL does) is also not a runaway– polls there show a substantial but not insurmountable lead for Obama there.
And in NV & SC, voters take that pledge thing seriously. When Obama said hello to some reporters who’d gathered outside a FL fundraiser a few months back, a Las Vegas paper did a serious piece questioning whether he’d broken the pledge. Those early states want to keep their place in line, and want to see FL punished for “cutsies”.
So– put yourself in Hillary’s place. Will you risk losing a couple of points in the next couple of states– where things are close and crucial– to come here and try to pad your 20-point lead? Winning in NV will help her more in Florida, in terms of momentum and excitement, than holding a couple of events on Miami Beach.
True– the Clinton campaign looked into holding a low-$, big crowd fundraiser at the Miami Beach Convention Ctr. just before our primary. That was apparently the source of the Obama campaign’s concerns.
But even such a fundraiser– technically legal under the Pledge– would not play well in all-important NV & SC. So Hillary will do a pair of under-the-radar, no-press-allowed events on Miami Beach this weekend… tucking away another $750,000 but not actually meeting anyone Floridians for free, or singing to anyone but the choir.

Advertisements

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: